2006 had rising rates and inflation as now BUT most of 2006 had risk on.  Therefore any pullback in SPY was very short followed by a rally. Formula is Risk Off + FPC.  But for 2006 it was Risk ON + FPC.

Risk ON for most of 2006-

SPY pullbacks 2-4% ONLY:

Now I see that Risk ON/OFF may switch back and forth every year in February as inflation and fed rates rise.

If we go back to 2013-2016 to understand relationship of bouncing oil prices and fed policy:

2013    Risk ON                   Oil UP    GDP 1.7%

2014    Risk ON to OFF     Oil DOWN    GDP 2.4%

2015    Risk OFF                 Oil DOWN    GDP 2.6%

2016    Risk ON                  Oil UP    GDP 1.6%

2017    Risk OFF (starts Feb) Oil DOWN    GDP UP

2018    Risk ON (Feb)          Oil UP     why?

2018 has oil going up as oil gets too oversold and rebounds.  Yellin also likes the lower oil price as it boosts GDP. BUT by 2019 delinquencies will have risen too far and NYSE margin debt will implode…

2019    Risk Off                      Oil DOWN       GDP NEGATIVE

Core inflation will remain above 2.0% for this period so TLT not a play until mkt crash 2019.