July will be similar to 2014 in that oil will become a bear market again. BUT as July 2014 had a -2.5% fall, this July will have a similar pullback but no correction. Expect another pullback 2-4% in Apr-May. The two pullbacks indicate the Sep-Oct 10% correction. Correction occurs from Sep 1-mid Oct. Look for VIX 15 to start.

1. Generally summer doldrums means less volume and trading
2. When compared to Jul 2008 and Jul 2011, CPI will be much less than 4.9% and 3.5% respectively and economic growth stronger. So SPY falls less…
3. SPY has lots of momentum now and takes time to lose steam even with a fed rate rise in June.