Tremor 1 (-2 to -4%) underway after Oil X 40 wkma and FPC as predicted! Cycle is now 1 year from Mar 2017 to mid Feb 2018 risk off.

Tremor 2 will be Jun-Jul again -2 to 4%. But no FPC in Jun as Fed wants to rise 3 times this year. Jun-Jul is not chosen for FPC as summer holidays interfere.

Then the correction (-10%) Sep to Oct after Sep Fed Meeting. Why Sep?

Fed policy changes in Sep most of the time:

Sep 2007 Fed dropped rates first time in 4 years.

Sep 2010  QE starts

Sep 2011 Twist

Sep 2012 QE on MBS

Sep-Oct 2013 Debt Limit Crisis

Sep-Oct 2014 After holidays correction…taper all year

Sep 2015 (not to be china Aug crash)

and Sep 2016 risk on…oil rising so no chance for correction.