Oil will X back above 40wkma. This is good as a July Xover is better. CCPI fell to 1.9 in April.  This should rise to 2.0 by June fed meeting .  USD is falling a bit in response to ccpi 1.9. This will pressure inflation up.  CPI release comes out June 14 same day as Fed Mtg.

Fed will use cautionary language on June 14 causing oil to X below 40wkma in July and then Fed will raise Sep 20.