The last 2 months had low core inflation Mar (-0.1) and Apr (0.1) but it will revert back to mean of 0.183. Core inflation has been driven higher by obamacare and rent (shelter).  These trends are strong and will continue until next recession 2019-2020 which is still far away:

1. Delinquencies are low and still declining.
2. Unemployment claims still declining -12.5%
3. Unemployment rate very low…met Fed targets
4. Gross cpi still strong at 2.2
5. Rents still strong

Rents are increasing at 3.5% annualized and are sticky. Rents are the biggest part of cpi  at 33% (42% for housing) and now are above the ccpi rate of 1.9 pressuring it higher. June Fed Meeting will be cautious causing a short rally…then a 2% fall after July meeting.