In 2008, oil rolled over beginning of July:
The roll over in oil occurs May-Jul time frame every 3 years…MACD weekly is a good indicator for oil direction.
In the OFC model, oil has been satisfied and will have downward pressure from here as Fed raises rates in Sep and Dec.
- unemployment low driving rents higher
- core inflation will rise due to rents, healthcare
- Fed has stated it will raise this year
The USD downward momentum has peaked. With oil down and USD rising in the next 3 months (reinforcing a downward oil momentum), the setup is for a Sep-Oct SPY fall.
Credit Flow Investor 