No pullback or correction occurred in Sep-Oct. This would’ve increased the VIX to a target 16+ level by end of December. It hasn’t happened. The VIX is very low now and has bottomed at 10-11.
| End of Run | VIX | ROC14 | |
| 15 wkma | 14 day | ||
| Oct/2013 | 14.5 | -4% | QE, Debt limit crisis |
| Feb/2014 | 14 | -5% | Taper |
| Oct/2014 | 12.5 | -7% | Oil falls rapidly |
| Jan/2015 | 15.5 | -4.50% | FPC 0 TLT +++ |
| Aug/2015 | 13.5 | -10.00% | Threat of Fed increase |
| Jan/2016 | 18 | -10.00% | Fed Increase, also Jan 2008 -10% |
See the runup of VIX in the 2005-2009 period (the bottom is 10-11):
VIX has nowhere to go but up as it has bottomed. Expect 12-14 range of VIX 15wkma next year as the Fed will keep raising rates and the USD strengthens.
Credit Flow Investor 