S&P yearly returns follow a normal distribution of sorts. Stock returns follow a surge year followed by 2 ‘fall off years’. The surge years seem to be right after elections (2009 and 2013 were boosted by QE). The 2017 surge is the weakest of the 3 actually.

The VIX also rises for 2 years after the surge!

The 2013 stock surge (+32.39%) wore off quickly into late 2014 (+13.69).  So the SPY surge of 2017 (+18%) leads to a 2018 return of +10% and a 2019 return of 1%.

Below is the distribution of S&P yearly returns. FR+ refers to the Fed raising rates. The fall in 2020 should be 62% in fact by Fibonacci numbers (-37% in 2008, another one) but I don’t want to scare anybody !