Real personal income was increasing at 3-5% between 2005-2008 (a good economy).  Now it’s 1.3%. It’s the weakest value since early 2014.

Oil prices fell rapidly in 2014-2015 increasing real income. As oil prices now rise, personal income has been falling again. Hence, the Fed futures show increasing fed rates as Yellin/Powell prefer lower oil prices in order to boost real income.

Oil will retrace to $68 and then turn over in April-May bottoming Jan 2019. This will give a boost to ccpi and Fed will raise this Dec 2017 and once more, Dec 2018.