With CCPI on the rise, is a 1y long term TLT hold policy wise?  CCPI has been falling for 7 months but is now on the rise. Also monthly ccpi now 0.22 or 2.69% annualized. Average ccpi for 2017 has been 1.90%. This implies an upward trend in inflation now.

Below is monthly ccpi:

Let’s see..yearly CCPI and TLT YoY ROC:

Results

Yearly results summarized:

As you can see, if ccpi is above 2.0, TLT has a poor yearly return (-1% 2012, 2016 0%). 2012 is shown only in the table. SPY is eligible for 10% corrections however when ccpi is 2.0 in Sep-Oct and Jan. Also VIX tends to rise with ccpi above 2.0.

TLT YoY return next year will be low -1% or 0%.

BUT now that ccpi is rising:

1. CCPI will rise above 2.0
2. Fed will threaten more rate rises
3. VIX will move up to 12.5
4. Oil will start fall Jun-Aug
5. VIX 20 / ROC -4% Jun-Jul
6. Sep-Oct fall this year -7% (raises VIX) followed by -10% in Jan