Now we know ccpi will be 2.0 in 2018.

When in Fed raising mode, CCPI > 2.0 leads to Fed tightening policies. 2016 is a guide with many vix events. As well, now that vix has bottomed, it has no where to go but up.

Factors favorable to SPY in 2017 (in addition to expected tax cuts):

1. After election year
2. After March, ccpi below 2.0 leads to returns speeding up and less vix events
3. USD falling most of 2017 due to ECB expected taper and ccpi above
4. Oil generally above the 40wkma except for May-Aug

Next year 2018 less favorable:

1. Year after surge +20% means SPY can rise up to +10%
2. CCPI will be above 2.0 for the year which leads to lower returns and more vix events (2016)
3. Fed continues to raise rates in 2018 bolstering USD  (flat to rising)
4. Oil losing momentum and falling from May-Jun as USD no longer supporting it