The best recession indicator is the 10 year-2 year treasury rates, (now 0.56). After so many years, recession is finally upon us. I believed recession was impossible without inversion and indeed it was but NOW IT WILL ARRIVE! See below on the way to recession as inversion is 1 year away.
When the first inversion takes place, the Fed pauses THEN they drop rates when the inversion reverses.
The fed rate and 2 year rates are also converging to 1.85 which implies the pause in Dec 2018 for the Fed at 2.1 as stated in an earlier post. Charts for the last 5y below:
Links are under Reference:
10 year rate minus 2 year rate
And 2 year rate here says rates are going to rise quickly as inflation does-
For further reference, here are top performing Treasury Funds 1y performance from above link:
http://etfdb.com/type/bond/treasuries
Credit Flow Investor 
