As inflation rises quickly (as it did with the tax cut in 2011), TLT anticipates by 1 month and starts to pop in the month of 2.0 or after the holidays.  This will be April as CCPI last March 2017 was low (-0.073) and the average is much higher for the previous 5 years (0.12) see table-

The bold values indicate the predicted values for Feb and Mar (reported Mar and Apr). February is predicted on the high side of estimates.

Due to Fed rate rise on Mar 21, the purchase day is right after the Fed rate 1 week correction in TLT (Mar 29 close or Apr 2 open). CCPI is rising faster than Nov 2015 and there’s no holiday delay this time.  TLT has an April seasonality as well due to Q2 beginning I suppose.

BUT THE KEY AGAIN IS THE FED POLICY CHANGE (FED RISE + 2.0). FED GIVES THE ENERGY TO THE BOUNCE. Notice in Dec 2015 the Fed raised rates and TLT popped right after the holidays in Jan 2016. In Jul 2011, the ‘twist’ rumors were everywhere. Hence the pop after the Jul 4 holidays in Aug.

The fed rate rise causes the TLT pop afterwards. The other rise in Jun will cause another TLT pop after the 1 week TLT correction.

Mar 21 Fed rise, 1 week correction down

Apr 2 TLT buy, sell May 30 1015

Jun 1-13 TLT rise, sell Fed Mtg close

Fed rate rise Jun 13 (Fed + 2.0), 1 week correction down

Jun 20-Jul 20 TLT rises again…

After the Sep rate rise, VIX will fall again and SPY rallies Oct 1- Nov 20. So TLT won’t be a play after the Sep rate rise. Also Dec is off as the Fed will be pausing after the Dec rise causing oil to rise rapidly thereafter.

Side Note with holidays

Order of Events with Holidays:

Fed Policy Change or Rise

Holiday

Market reaction starts the next month