Next month ccpi will rise by 0.12 (average for mar)–0.073 (last mar) or 0.193 to give 2.05 ccpi.

We are above 6y trend inflation and over last year.  See Mar, Apr and May last year when inflation was way below trend!

I assume average inflation+0.015 to estimate monthly inflation numbers. 0.015 is 45% of the Feb 2018 above 6y trend inflation number 0.033. So this is a conservative estimate…

Considering a market drop of 10% in February…inflation has held up pretty good. March is the first full month of tax cut money. March was very weak last year so that’s why the surge to 2.05-2.08 by Apr 11.