No Bear Mkt…you need rising unemployment claims

In order to have a bear market, unemployment claims must be rising and delinquencies.  Both are still falling…UC quarterly below…

 

The last bear market began beginning Q2 2007:

The Fed lowered rates for the first time on Aug 1 2007 or 4 months after.

The MOST DEFINITE SIGN of a bear market is when the Fed lowers rates for the first time.  Usually the market falls just before and after this event.

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