The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. decreased for the first time this year.

Large negative contributions from building permits, the ISM® New Orders Index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) fueled June’s decline.

In the first half of 2019, the leading economic index increased 0.2 percent (about a 0.4 percent annual rate), significantly slower than the growth of 1.5 percent (about a 2.9 percent annual rate) over the second half of 2018. In addition, the strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators are now more balanced.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, increased in June. The coincident economic index rose 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) between December 2018 and June 2019, much slower than the growth of 1.3 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. Also, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become less widespread, with three out of four components advancing over the past six months. The lagging economic index increased, but at a faster rate than the CEI. As a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio declined in June. Real GDP expanded at a 3.1 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter, after increasing 2.2 percent (annual rate) in the last quarter of 2018. [Full notes in PDF]

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/07/18/conference-board-leading-economic-index-fell-in-june