CONSTRUCTION is the key. To many, this is common sense BUT today there is TOO MUCH INFORMATION.
Hence, most are confused. Many pointed this out in 2023 as the first leg of the economy to go. Each construction job creates 3 others. When construction falls YoY (rare), recession is inevitable.
Construction Falls YoY -> Rising Unemployment -> Delinquency in Loans -> Collapse.
Look at the change in the UR below. It started in Aug 2023 COINCIDENT with the peak of the construction units, Aug 2023 (see construction post…)
Unemployment UR continues to move up from Aug 2023.
UR is still at 4.2% like Dec 2006. BUT moving up. UR will reach 4.8% by next Nov.
Another reason why this is NOT 2007. BUT next year is …. DUE to downturn in construction.
WHY HAS IT TAKEN SO LONG? simple.
CONSTRUCTION was TOO STRONG and unemployment too low.
BUT now weakness has arrived in 2024 and 2025 leading to recession after.
Credit Flow Investor 