Since 1991 the economy has worked on loans-construction (as loans are huge now).

Many reported the mortgage market collapse in lending 2022 and 2023.

BUT that is only one of the dominoes. They never tell you the whole story of why recessions happen.

1. Mortgage Market Fall -75% 2y……………………………………………….2022-2023
2. Construction Downturn YoY -10%. ………………………………………..2024
3. Construction Employment Down YoY. ……………………………………2025
4. Delinquencies rise on all loans with construction unemployment..Q3 2025
5. Banking Crisis and Credit Crunch.. …………………………………………2026.

These are the 5 key factors to a recession AND why we have not had one for 16 years!

Clearly construction jobs will stall in early 2025…

Mortgage market down 75% from peak BUT construction has continued that being they are way too optimistic in that business.

1. Construction drops -10% in 2006
2. Layoffs in construction start Jun-Jul 2007 and then only mildly
3. BUT enough to cause loan delinquencies to rise > 2% by Q3 2007

SO next year 2025 begins the layoffs in construction and delinquency crisis.