Construction -20% off peak….
Home builders/construction are the best indicators for the real estate cycle.
Now -20% off the peak Aug 2023.
Zillow now forecasts -1.7% drop in real estate 2025 (FIRST down year).
Bottom would be 2030….
Construction employment turns up first… ADP construction..
POSITIVE WEALTH EFFECT occurs when real estate starts slowly rising again at 4% per year after 2029.
This keeps a weak economy from slipping into recession. THE AGE OF BERNANKE:
- THE TRIUMPH OF CAPITAL (and passive income) OVER LABOR.
- Slow rise of real estate keeps economy slowly going.
- Real estate is widely held.
- Global real estate and capital marketplace now exists for the first time.
- The construction-home builders know the real estate cycle better than anyone. Turns in the cycle are indicated there.
- Beware massive perma-bear/nationalist propaganda which continues everywhere thanks to the internet.
- The new cycle is 16 years up- slow at first. AND 5-6 years down…recession.
- Everything is numbers and credentials.
- Immigration keeps GDP rising with population.
- Growth slowly dies as debts continue to mount. AND thereby GDP per capita falls.
- No where do they discuss these strategies as they are politically unpalatable.
- AND conspiracy sells although gov’t and its propaganda arms support everything above. And people are so distracted that they don’t listen to reality.
- It all continues until money velocity hits 0 – 30-40 years from now. AND then direct lending will be entertained.
Credit Flow Investor 