Here’s a list of indicators that did not work. after-action report.

Many of these indicators are traditional BUT DID NOT WORK…

Some may work again given that the 50 year super-cycle bubble is bursting.

1. IGNORING 2Y RULE after 2022.
2. 2 year treasury
3. Unemployment Rate YoY…(level was too low at 3.5%)
4. Job Openings YoY (level was too high at 11M)
5. TIP-IEF ratio
6. sentiment surveys
7. CPI falling rapidly (levels too high 50y high in 2022)
8. gdp in Q1 2023 at 1.0%
9. Negative dividends growth Q3 2024
10. Continuing claims rising through 2023 (they’re lagging and were too low)
11. XLE 3 weeks down (3 dot).
12. delinquency rates rising (level was too low in 2021)

AND JP has to keep rates high for longer because of his fukups in 2021!!!

Of general background assistance,

1. XLE 4 wks down and -10% (dec 2024)… signals trend change
2. 40 wkma slope SPY
3. 40 wkma slope XLE
4. 100 wkma slope TECK