As we all know 2022 was bad for stocks…inflation was rising quickly.

AND bad for bonds as rates rose from 0% to 4.x%.

And we now know 2023-2025 has been good for stocks.

Why? Inflation has been falling for the whole period. Even when the Fed was dropping rates in 2024!

BUT now we have falling rates and declining growth with rising inflation

(also GDX +100% YTD indicates future inflation 2026)

which causes SPY hiccups and runs to risk off assets.

AND eventually a nervous breakdown – liquidation/crunches in the risk markets.