As there are no straight lines and markets will oscillate before the big crunch..

When the conditions occur from May- onwards…

I could never figure out the riddle of 2007-2008 until I realized that WS switches to milk Oil and Gas when stocks start failing. Oil and Gas are speculations to WS in this environment …the economy be damned.

SPY was just +2% in 2007.

This solves 2008 when oil spiked in a weak (neg GDP) economy weakening the economy further. Gold also rose first starting years before in 2004.

The years 2023-2025 had strong SPY but weak gasoline especially….another riddle if you don’t know.

The smart ones started buying gold who knew that SPY would weaken and WS would switch to Oil Gas and Gold.

The problem contains the Fed as they can’t drop rates too quickly especially the magical 2.0% level.

Advantage to TLT being late to the party as these conditions become obvious. Gold is the first mover.

TLT starts to rise in general pricing in the coming bad economy and recession. Hence, the idea of TLT to SPY ratio being the tracker along with change of SPY (weak) being low.

Eventually, the big deflation hits when SPY is sold off 50% along with everything (margin calls)

except bonds.