Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Of course, it makes sense that upward pressure has to build before a +10% is possible. After July drop on this chart, another +10% occurs in August.

0.145 by Dec…

Above 0.146-0.147 is official bull….

Home builders take the first hit before SPY. See Last November and December before big drops in March and April. LEN down 6% MoM and -11% from peak price beginning of Sep.

As we all know 2022 was bad for stocks…inflation was rising quickly. AND bad for bonds as rates rose from 0% to 4.x%. And we now know 2023-2025 has been good for stocks. Why? Inflation has been falling for the … Continue reading →

‘Stagflation’ as JP has noted. Note-peak of inflation Jun 2022…stocks bottomed Oct 2022. Then stocks rallied from Oct 2022-Sep 2025 as inflation fell from 9% to 2.4%. Service inflation fell from 8% to 3.5%. BUT now inflation rising the last … Continue reading →

USD weakens again slowly. FXC is a good leading indicator for liquidity and it started drying up in July…

Last inflation was 0.38 (core inflation 0.35). Assuming a mild acceleration and a later deceleration… the YoY below is indicated. As inflation picks up, it will reach 5%+ by next year.

AS inflation surges, growth dies. Recessions are built on inflation and negative growth. As the Fed drops rates, inflation surges killing growth. But IF THEY DONT DROP, GROWTH DIES EVEN FASTER. THEY ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD … Continue reading →