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Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor
CPI-PPI < 0 means profits under pressure
Starting Oct 2024 CPI was moving below PPI putting profits under pressure. Profits were under pressure all during 2022 until Jan 2023 when profits soared because CPI consumer prices were well above producer-wholesale prices. NOTICE the CPI moves under PPI … Continue reading
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Quarterly S&P (the DELTA on the economy) and PERSISTENCE quote
How are economy/asset prices doing ? Easy…check the S&P average prices BUT by quarter. As you can see below, it becomes quite clear… “Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common … Continue reading
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Bi-wkly S&P and Oil
based on average daily close price… And all lines point up again 2y Treasury since mid-July… Oil trends down…bi-wkly oil daily close average…
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Multi-unit condo-apt building down 20% (Real Estate Housing Home)
The change is more dramatic…and signal recession
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Payroll growth finally weak (0.97%) < 1% YoY and Empl-Popn breaks to new low
see 2007… Jobs under pressure…new low here Empl-Popn downtrend: -0.4 over last year
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Auto Loan Delinquencies higher than before 2008
See minute 1:20…
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USD trend=Fed cycle not economy
2015 economy was weak (Oil at $10) but jobs strong and USD strong as rates were about to rise. 2013 economy weak but QE so USD down. 2025 Jan econ OK but Fed stopped dropping so USD weakened for 6 … Continue reading
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July Unemployment Rate (UR) up …close to 4.3%
Labor force continues to shrink as well…
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Credit Flow Investor 