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Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor
Core Inflation Slightly Up over Dec 2025
Inflation still at 0.24 …last year 0.21
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Year End PE ratio 39.8 and other consumer data..gas buddy down last 3 months
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10y Break Even Yield trends down since Oct
10y TIPS-10y shows inflation pressure… Longer term…
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Bitcoin BTC goes sideways -9% YoY …liquidity starts to dry up like 2022
BTC has 2X beta of SPY and has gone sideways since October.
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WMT last year +75%…this year +22%
OR 0.3 of last year…so next year +7%. When the stock surges big one year…the increase drops big the next year. Euro starts to move up…weakening US economy. Growth started to falter in 2025….
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Bonds up this year….IEF up 4.5% vs -5% last year…Stocks rise 50% of last year
Bonds sideways since October…due for a turn. S&P up 13.9% vs 28.3% last year (Monthly average)…
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Highest Unemployment in 4 years…4.6%…SPY slowing up 13.9% for the year from 25.7% last year
Empl to Popn falls again to 59.6…falls 0.8% (peak) of 340M pop or 2.72M jobs lost. AND SPY slowing 50% of last year… 2026 could be as low as 22% of 13.9% or 3%…
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Credit Flow Investor 