Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

Link… https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1YxRj

Most of the time these time indicators don’t matter. BUT when there’s a squeeze or a ‘play’ happening they can be very useful. CPI day (last Friday for example) CPI week (bonds down the entire week) Fed week or the … Continue reading →

I also believe there will be no drop in December. BUT commodities will fall anyway for 3 months (Oct-Dec).

bonds now oversold on weekly….

SPY RSI is only 56 so no threat from stocks (YoY +20%) Fed leaves rates unchanged and –ve QE which is good for bonds (last year they were dropping rates) 3 months more are needed for KW to meet inflation … Continue reading →

IN BOTH CASES TLT MUST BE OFF THE RECENT 2-3 MONTH LOW ( a significant run-up). Jul 2019 +8 OFF recent low Jul 2024 +5 OFF recent low 3 GHA bars before Fed meeting… TLT GHA July 30 2019 Now … Continue reading →

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh flagged that underlying inflation is not slowing during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Chairman Warsh downplayed the funds rate as the preferred tool to fight inflationary risks in favor of a smaller … Continue reading →

For a break-out- A good pre-run is +5 by 4th week of October or 82 + 5= $87 or 50% retrace This week 1 year treasury yield actually went up +0.11% ! When the cycle changes, and the FED does … Continue reading →