Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

See on secondary indicators…percent change over 2 weeks Fed balance sheet peaked April 8 and started ramp up on March 11….

As of Dec 2019, job openings decline by 14% YoY. But from a higher level than 2006, 2 quarters away from reaching 2007 levels…

  And world trade volume shrinking July and Nov 2019 (-1%)… And baltic dry index fell to new recent low. The 40wkma is now pushing down.

And my equivalent indicator: Quarterly Unemployment Claims… And monthly:

  OEX 12dma not sideways yet so still more SPY upside…but limited to 305.   Weekly macd moves up more slowly…  

Some new inflation forces have turned the 2 year treasury up.  This happens before a major market fall. Core inflation has also turned up in June…   And core inflation monthly up quite a bit more than June last year-

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. decreased for the first time this year. Large negative contributions from building permits, the ISM® New Orders Index, and initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) fueled June’s decline. In the first half of … Continue reading →