Author Archives: Credit Flow Investor

There’s no doubt that rail traffic and other indicators show a weak economy.  Later this year the tax increases will also bite. But I like this link from dshort.com on business cycles and his conclusions: If you have studied the … Continue reading →

BBd means Bollinger Band daily             BBw means Bollinger Band weekly The number 1 is VIX and it has turned down.  It is time to go to cash and sell TLT. This is a very uncertain period so cash is best. … Continue reading →

QE is failing as all CB are increasing assets.  The USD is rising against expectations of QE.  Clearly the Fed bought too high.  They should buy low! I recommend TLT highly at this point.  The market (SPY) faces: 1) OB … Continue reading →

From below…. Another concern for the cautionary wing of the BOJ centers on the unusual structure of Japan’s economy. Japan’s jobless rate – at 4 percent – is half that of the United States. But wages remain on the decline, … Continue reading →

Michio Kaku has an interesting take on economic cycles in his book: Physics of the Future c2011 I agree with him that excess capital can be used to inflate bubbles like housing.  What’s missing in the QE debates is that … Continue reading →

  From jugglingdynamite.com: 20 Dec Cory Venable ‏@CoryLVenable While your Broker tells YOU to buy STOCKS, their Dealer BOND holdings climb to record levels…(hypocrisy?) h/t ZR http://t.co/IiVaZ5Ro      

I would sell any SPY at this point and remain in cash with spec capital. A confusing time as TLT:SPY says risk but VIX says no and best stock market indicator also says no….

When CPI is 1.x or 2.x the Fed will add stimulus. When CPI is 3.x, the Fed will signal no intervention. This has occurred in 2010, 2011 and 2012…also 2008! I predict that a weak January economy will lead to … Continue reading →

Low growth can be used by the ‘recovery’ and nearby recession camps to support their claims.  As the economy is on the cusp of growth, the recovery camp argues that the growth will increase.  The recession around the corner camp … Continue reading →

TLT:SPY says risk ON.  Oil is falling due to commodity glut. I would favor moving to SPY with risk capital.  Core position in 0 coupon bonds.