Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Fed does not look ahead. It always looks back fighting ‘inflation’ now instead of worrying about next year. But bonds have been quietly moving up since mid-March as growth has been dying. Short term inflation will have less and … Continue reading →

growth dying… IEF

200dma X 500 dma Last 3 mo

ECB dropped 0.25 on Mar 6 and Apr 17… You can judge weak economy by slope of XLE…

Construction -20% off peak…. Home builders/construction are the best indicators for the real estate cycle. Now -20% off the peak Aug 2023. Zillow now forecasts -1.7% drop in real estate 2025 (FIRST down year). Bottom would be 2030…. Construction employment … Continue reading →

Prices on food come off with weak economy… from superc.ca Unemployment up 1.6% from bottom…

Delinquencies are now accelerating. Recession is near…