Category Archives: Uncategorized

Home builders confirm bear market as of this week…

What coincides with construction downturns? Unemployment and mortgage delinquency.. MBA (Mortgage bankers association) even confirms that unemployment is key to mortgage delinquencies.

Market heavily overvalued….Shiller PE… AND delinquencies are rising. Mortgages rise with unemployment the next 2 years. AND historically delinquencies fall every year YoY.

This explains the drop in rates Canada and Europe,,,,50 bps each meeting.

Gold now trades with the euro and inverse USD as it should… Last Dec trending up…this year DOWN. AND downtrend gold means downtrend inflation !

Rising 33.5% next year means next year at 30,000 plus then massive acceleration in 2026! In 2008, it peaked at 60,000 in Q4… Swedish Krone falls 9.2% this year..

The Fed says no more than 2 drops next year 2025. They said the same in 2023 about 2024 BUT had 4 drops. So Fed is still concerned about inflation BUT construction continues to fall and rising unemployment 2025 will … Continue reading →