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German 10 year after ECB drops in weak economy
ECB dropped 0.25 on Mar 6 and Apr 17… You can judge weak economy by slope of XLE…
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6 year real estate down cycle (NEGATIVE WEALTH EFFECT)…also AGE OF BERNANKE
Construction -20% off peak…. Home builders/construction are the best indicators for the real estate cycle. Now -20% off the peak Aug 2023. Zillow now forecasts -1.7% drop in real estate 2025 (FIRST down year). Bottom would be 2030…. Construction employment … Continue reading
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Gasoline shows lower inflation for april AND Credit Card Flows Turn Negative
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Deals in Canada Returning
Prices on food come off with weak economy… from superc.ca Unemployment up 1.6% from bottom…
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Delinquency Rising on all loans
Delinquencies are now accelerating. Recession is near…
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GDP weak near 0…employment continues to weaken…
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/q1-gdp-tracking-near-zero-growth_0153707245.html No big layoffs until 2026… Trend in employment weakness continues…
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Inflation down for 2 months
As stocks have fallen in March and April, cpi will be low for 2 months.
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