Category Archives: Uncategorized

Europe and Canada Inflation 0 for 4 months

This explains the drop in rates Canada and Europe,,,,50 bps each meeting.

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M1 money supply now rising Positive since October

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Gold signals DOWNTREND inflation

Gold now trades with the euro and inverse USD as it should… Last Dec trending up…this year DOWN. AND downtrend gold means downtrend inflation !

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Bankruptcies back to 2019 levels BUT rising 33% per year and Swedish krone falls 9.2% this year

Rising 33.5% next year means next year at 30,000 plus then massive acceleration in 2026! In 2008, it peaked at 60,000 in Q4… Swedish Krone falls 9.2% this year..

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Once Again XLE not ‘official’ bear yet BUT next year..(Q4 -10%)

XLE bear signal has arrived now ….4 weeks down and -10% (-13.5%)…

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American Tower -12% YoY, Rents keep falling and Layoffs at nonbank lenders

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Where does the crisis come from?

The Fed says no more than 2 drops next year 2025. They said the same in 2023 about 2024 BUT had 4 drops. So Fed is still concerned about inflation BUT construction continues to fall and rising unemployment 2025 will … Continue reading →

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Europe Construction Employment Negative

Probably why ECB drops so aggressively…I would say Europe is 1 year ahead of US. Output started down in Feb but unemployment was delayed for 2Q. PMI not useful as it was too early by 2 years… UK also negative … Continue reading →

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Unemployment Claims Rise Again …Optimism fading

Continuing Claims keep push up…

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OEX signals bear market at end of year. Trend in December determines the next year. Trend is down.

In July 2021, OEX turned bearish and market started to turn bear in Jan 2022. Likewise, OEX turned bearish in October 2024. ABNB continues in bear market. Last year was +50% in December…now -12%… Construction Bear Market 2024-

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