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In Feb 2013, TLT fell rapidly based on an inflation scare and had a brief rally at end of Feb. The following month,Mar, had a CPI day of 2.0 on Mar 15.  Note the opening was the best time to … Continue reading →

Always you need a fundamental driver: Fed Mtg or CPI day.   Watch for -1% down day on SPY after CPI day (Mar 13). Fed first day Mar 20 is also possible.   And watch for the 4dma- dot, the … Continue reading →

We’ve had a ROC -7.5 event…rebound now underway…4dma X 5 days ago last time the run on spy was: Oct 16 bottom..2018 bottom Thu Feb 8 257.50 +6% up Nov 10 was first stop…25d later…now first stop Mar 5 Nov … Continue reading →

As Feb CCPI is stronger than expected, a new strategy is necessary. Below are the last 3 transitions to CCPI 2.0.  When CCPI moves to 2.0, SPY stalls out after 2nd week (Jul 2011, Apr 2013,Dec 2015). Of course, TLT … Continue reading →

The last transition to ccpi 2.0 was Dec 2015 with a Fed rise. TLT then made a rally Jan 4,2016 – Feb 11, 2016. You need USO at the beginning of the trend to get it started. On Jan 4 … Continue reading →

While it will take 42 days to wash through this from the start Jan 30, this is good news: Volatility is finally up since Aug 2015 Events come in waves so the next one is within 4.5 mo Econ and … Continue reading →

With VIX at 37, recovery will be slow.  No point in SPY recovery until middle Mar-3rd week Apr. USO will also confirm at that time…

Vix 21 event happens this week but ROC14 hits -5% by Thu/Fri around 268. This will be the limit as ccpi is not yet 2.0. The fall has been violent/too quick so it will burn itself out quickly. Rebound play … Continue reading →

With both VIX lines rising, a new higher base is forming for VIX for ex. 12.   Employment to Pop falls 5 pts after 2006 and regains 1.5 pts in recent years:   Fed also indicates ccpi to rise as … Continue reading →

When both 15 and 22 wk lines both move up, VIX is moving to a higher base line for ex. 12.