Category Archives: Uncategorized

First, car sales/units YoY transition negative for the first time since 2006 (means a 2y countown):   Secondly, while not positive yet the UC Qtrly shows the worst Q4 performance since 2012:

BDI link: http://schrts.co/mhukwd Now that a recession is approaching…BDI can be useful and rail data (somewhat).  Near term Jan shows a greater downturn MACD (-60) than 2017 (-30) , black line (21) than 2017 (150) and ROC (36) than 2017 … Continue reading →

The YoY growth in car units sold by quarter shows decline since Q2 2016… Recession is close when this happens.

VIX base is rising even though SPY has also been rising. VIX 15wkma has crossed the 22 and VIX ROC YoY is also due to X zero. Last Jan 2017 VIX was falling rapidly -50% YoY. But this year its … Continue reading →

Two charts from the talk (1st chart past growth):   And the future growth:   I see a ‘dark age’ ahead. The above chart shows it as well…  

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170508.htm “We presently estimate that the total return of a passive, conventional portfolio mix of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% cash will hardly exceed 1% annually over the coming 12-year horizon.” This implies a very rough road for S&P500 … Continue reading →

The best recession indicator is the 10 year-2 year treasury rates, (now 0.56).  After so many years, recession is finally upon us. I believed recession was impossible without inversion and indeed it was but NOW IT WILL ARRIVE! See below … Continue reading →

The effective tax cut for the first year 2018 (declining every year after) boosts real income by 2.2%. The tax cut effect pushes up inflation and real income for 6 months then falls off. So I expect 2.0 core inflation … Continue reading →

Good news is that it has bottomed out and has nowhere to go but up! ROC shows above the line Jan 2014-Jul 2016. And from Jul 2016 below the line. 10.60 is also at the bottom historically. The change in … Continue reading →