Category Archives: Uncategorized

As Feb CCPI is stronger than expected, a new strategy is necessary. Below are the last 3 transitions to CCPI 2.0.  When CCPI moves to 2.0, SPY stalls out after 2nd week (Jul 2011, Apr 2013,Dec 2015). Of course, TLT … Continue reading →

The last transition to ccpi 2.0 was Dec 2015 with a Fed rise. TLT then made a rally Jan 4,2016 – Feb 11, 2016. You need USO at the beginning of the trend to get it started. On Jan 4 … Continue reading →

While it will take 42 days to wash through this from the start Jan 30, this is good news: Volatility is finally up since Aug 2015 Events come in waves so the next one is within 4.5 mo Econ and … Continue reading →

With VIX at 37, recovery will be slow.  No point in SPY recovery until middle Mar-3rd week Apr. USO will also confirm at that time…

Vix 21 event happens this week but ROC14 hits -5% by Thu/Fri around 268. This will be the limit as ccpi is not yet 2.0. The fall has been violent/too quick so it will burn itself out quickly. Rebound play … Continue reading →

With both VIX lines rising, a new higher base is forming for VIX for ex. 12.   Employment to Pop falls 5 pts after 2006 and regains 1.5 pts in recent years:   Fed also indicates ccpi to rise as … Continue reading →

When both 15 and 22 wk lines both move up, VIX is moving to a higher base line for ex. 12.

First, car sales/units YoY transition negative for the first time since 2006 (means a 2y countown):   Secondly, while not positive yet the UC Qtrly shows the worst Q4 performance since 2012:

BDI link: http://schrts.co/mhukwd Now that a recession is approaching…BDI can be useful and rail data (somewhat).  Near term Jan shows a greater downturn MACD (-60) than 2017 (-30) , black line (21) than 2017 (150) and ROC (36) than 2017 … Continue reading →

The YoY growth in car units sold by quarter shows decline since Q2 2016… Recession is close when this happens.