Category Archives: Uncategorized

Credit cards are the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the economy and overall delinquencies. Below is the rate of change in delinquencies (an early indicator). It is fairly noisy but is the first loan item to go delinquent. And … Continue reading →

Below is a table showing the VIX 20+ events per year: Note 2017 has had low VIX, low inflation (CCPI), and the year after election in its favor.  It loses 2 next year. Oil usually falls in the year after … Continue reading →

As the crisis onsets, the pullbacks and corrections (ROC14) get bigger as VIX rises: Mar 2007   -5% Jul 2007   -6% Nov 2007  -7% Jan 2008   -12% Oct 2008   -32% And as seen below, VIX crises after holidays: June (sometimes), Oct, … Continue reading →

With CCPI on the rise, is a 1y long term TLT hold policy wise?  CCPI has been falling for 7 months but is now on the rise. Also monthly ccpi now 0.22 or 2.69% annualized. Average ccpi for 2017 has … Continue reading →

Unless VIX hits 20 in December, it will take time to build up risk off conditions (the above 10wkma line needs to move upwards).  BUT VIX has started to move up to a 12 base line launching into a risk … Continue reading →

Vix will rise to a base of 12 next year 15 wkma (week moving average).

Real personal income was increasing at 3-5% between 2005-2008 (a good economy).  Now it’s 1.3%. It’s the weakest value since early 2014. Oil prices fell rapidly in 2014-2015 increasing real income. As oil prices now rise, personal income has been … Continue reading →

S&P yearly returns follow a normal distribution of sorts. Stock returns follow a surge year followed by 2 ‘fall off years’. The surge years seem to be right after elections (2009 and 2013 were boosted by QE). The 2017 surge … Continue reading →

Side note…boomers working more than ever…and demographic decline.   And of course, declining births over time…     From title, economic boost from 2016 to early 2017 has worn off. The boost from 2013 stock rally wore off into 2014 … Continue reading →

No pullback or correction occurred in Sep-Oct.  This would’ve increased the VIX to a target 16+ level by end of December. It hasn’t happened.  The VIX is very low now and has bottomed at 10-11. End of Run VIX ROC14 … Continue reading →