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Pause to June….Fed Futures
Parabolic gold +10% wk means a long sideways 3-4 months… 70% pause in April…
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SPY slows…12 week rolling at 2.9%
Last year Jan +2.5% …this year 1.3%.
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TIP up …ROC12 close to 0
Last 6 months speed at 50% compared to Jan last year…
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SPY 12wk Rolling Now +0.3%
SPY has lost momentum as TIP picks up momentum.+0.16%.
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TIP moves up
Ponzis always fail in the end…ideas also like ponzis. https://podcastindex.org/podcast/440470?episode=48111284089
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Luxury now taking hits Audi Q4 Sales -36%
Luxury brands now seeing declining sales… Just as in last recession…the weak links go first then high middle class goes. ABS issuance also died in Q4.
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TIPs are a leading indicator
Last 6 months… AND before…2022-2024 strong economy. 2025 weakness starts..
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