Category Archives: Uncategorized

Corporate Bonds Start to Dry Up

The credit flow slows dramatically… AND ABS…4th Qtr way down.

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Core Inflation Slightly Up over Dec 2025

Inflation still at 0.24 …last year 0.21

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Year End PE ratio 39.8 and other consumer data..gas buddy down last 3 months

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TLT up YoY 2.89% vs -10% last year

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Gov’t Job Growth less than ADP

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As predicted, pause in Jan and also March….IEF 4wk +

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10y Break Even Yield trends down since Oct

10y TIPS-10y shows inflation pressure… Longer term…

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Bitcoin BTC goes sideways -9% YoY …liquidity starts to dry up like 2022

BTC has 2X beta of SPY and has gone sideways since October.

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WMT last year +75%…this year +22%

OR 0.3 of last year…so next year +7%. When the stock surges big one year…the increase drops big the next year. Euro starts to move up…weakening US economy. Growth started to falter in 2025….

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Bonds up this year….IEF up 4.5% vs -5% last year…Stocks rise 50% of last year

Bonds sideways since October…due for a turn. S&P up 13.9% vs 28.3% last year (Monthly average)…

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