Category Archives: Uncategorized

ROC20 is now minus But I want -4- on/after Dec 18 before I consider buying large. See here Sep, Oct, and Nov were mostly +ve..a break is needed before next rebound. The rally could still start Dec 18 as Nov … Continue reading →

If not buy TLT Mar/Apr. For now stay cash. ROC-4- means rate of change 20 days for SPY falls more than 4%. Now it is 0% and crossing to – territory can take a few days to a month. There … Continue reading →

As OEX crosses the 10 wkma and approaches the 78-82 range, look for a bottom soon. I say most likely will be Fed minutes Jan 8-12 but could be Dec 18. Confirmations are OEXd 4dma X to the upside and … Continue reading →

This chart shows a very nice up/down profile and SPY buy turns in conjunction with bollinger bands and OEXd. 1) OEX weekly early signal but wait to see 2,3 2) BB daily X to bottom and first ‘up’ to see … Continue reading →

  I am watching these two come down and it looks like Jan 8 may be the buy date instead of Dec 19.

When the OEX 4 day moving average (OEX 4dma) turns after falling 8-10 points, look to buy in the 78-82 range.   The fall period has been 2-4 weeks. ROC level coming down. The May-Jun period took 41 days to … Continue reading →

ROC20 is falling. When it falls -1 to -4.5 about the Fed meeting Dec 18, watch for OEX to cross above the 4dma (should be an ‘up’ day).  This worked very well on Oct 9 but I didn’t catch that … Continue reading →

When April inflation was low, May had a very good rally as now rising ROC20 7.5%.  We have now seen the same with Sep inflation and Oct/Nov rally. However, there’s a chance that the minutes / meeting will emphasize possible … Continue reading →

Notice PCE inflation falling and rising fed balance sheet!   Charts below from http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov13/SSA-cash11-13.html Here is money velocity, diving to new lows.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/central-banks-risk-asset-bubbles-in-battle-with-deflation-danger.html This is the problem now.  As the economy slows, the asset bubbles are blown bigger and bigger. Despite record QE, disinflation (falling inflation) continues – PCE price index change year over year is falling. See chart on debt driven … Continue reading →