Credit Flow Investor

Oil will not spiral out of control.

See services ism prices the last 3 years….

And services inflation was low with stocks from Feb and Mar but then accelerated….

And even Fed Futures is split….

looks like its on the way to 3.3% by end of November…

1 year shows hiccups …months ahead…

For spy drops, oil weekly is a good leader…

Even luxury is not immune…hence why celebrities are selling at a discount.

KRE down 4 weeks and ready to drop YoY.

Carmax for low end used car buyers broke through in July…

For Q3, Prices AND Sales were down.

Average new car prices starting down in 2024/2025….

Ratio of TLT to regional banks….

deals Canada..43% off.

12 wk ema has crossed 40 wk ema….

Based on 12wk ema or 0.323 per week, 12wk ema is 91.9 by Dec

or 91.9+2.5=94.5 by week 3 Dec.

Longer-term since last year…

SPY also weakening…weakest in 6 months.

The decline from lei highs has been very long. Oil also falling slowly $10-12 per year.

The bull market in real estate has run from 2012 to 2025 or 13 years and stocks you could argue have been running since 2009 or 16 years.

Normally a bear market is 33 % of the bull. 2008 was one year out of 2003-2007 (5 years) so 20%.

Because of the big stimulus and rise, it will take longer to fall to recession than before.

And 20% of 16 years is 3 years. The first year down will be a ‘low growth’ economy.

HIGH ASSET PRICES have been driving everything which even jp now talks about being too high.

High prices lead to a ‘stall out’ versus a rapid inflation and crash.

Of course, it makes sense that upward pressure has to build before a +10% is possible.

After July drop on this chart, another +10% occurs in August.