And the opposite is true. When there’s risk on, ignore bad numbers!
Below indicates that delinquencies are rising faster and faster!!!
Unemployment sentiment continues higher to 70% near record!
Econ numbers get worse for air travel, airlines, and hotels-lodging…
In 2023, they were bad too BUT BUT BUT still RISK ON BACK THEN! DONT MAKE THAT MISTAKE!
AND NOT JUST McDONALDS LOSING…
Lastly, productivity worsens so layoffs to come…
This has been obvious since January…but Teck now has the 40 wkma X the 100 wkma!
Teck is official bear now.
Clearly the 12 wkma told you at the beginning of every year if it was a RISK on or off year….
Best indicators for Risk off/on:
If you look at end of 2022, I called for rise in 2023 of spy +15%….
Teck was clearly ON in 2022 with big rally by April while SPY was crashing…
Good risk on-off chart…..
Mr. T has been told by house members he must ‘pay’ for his tax cut extension.
It’s actually not a tax cut but a tax cut EXTENSION to keep the rate at 37%.
Net stimulus 150B or 0.5% GDP over a year…This is NOT 2017.
Mr. T has decided to raise taxes via tariffs to pay for it.
BUT corps will have to absorb most of this as consumers’ credit cards have been cut off…
waiting for first open above 12 wkma…
Corps having hard time passing on costs..inflation fears massively overblown.
You don’t have to go to 2007-2008 in order to see how far off the Fed can be.
Look at this interest rate prediction from March 2021. I saved it then on my hard drive.
They predicted rates at 0.75% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023 ! At the end of 2022, they were 4.5%.
The problem with listening to perma-bears is that they miss important things.
For example, McDonalds had 13 Q of record growth 30% !
How can you say economy was bad in 2024! It’s Complete Stupidity!
However, as I always say it’s all about timing!
Hence also the 2 YEAR RULE is important in order to live in this world.
Plus Minsky instability means things fall apart quickly in 18 months…
NOW FINALLY 2025 we have the first year of negative growth..
The YoY comparison is useful. Normally it drops every year. And in 2007, it accelerated upwards.
But now it continues up at 10% and the unemployment rate is now more reasonable at 4.2%…
The economy was too strong in 2023 when the rate was 3.5%.
Last 6 months…
Always mentioned are sub-prime loans for dramatic effect.
However, what’s important are the prime loans…
Last October it passed above 2% for 120days past due…
Level 1 (employees) and 2-3 are like birds. They’re always looking for small stuff and
they miss the big stuff.
THEY SQUANDER THEIR MENTAL CAPITAL WATCHING ALL THE TIME!
The BEAR or level 4 only wakes up when there is honey…He is refreshed and ready to go in a big way.
When does the bear wake up?
When the market hiccups!
The years 2023-2024 had no real hiccups only -10% over 3 months.
BUT NOW the bear awakens.
Between Feb and April …-17% and 6 weeks…VIX also rising.
THE REASONS ARE IRRELEVANT. Could be growth…overpriced/overvalued assets or the big T.
Only birds talk about ‘tawk’…
Great video of Bordenaro….
In 2021, rumors of inflation abounded and in 2022 the Fed went crazy raising rates.
Similar..we now have rumors of recession and then 2026 follows with Fed panicking again.
I think of 2026 as 2022 in reverse…
Credit Flow Investor 