Quarterly S&P (the DELTA on the economy) and PERSISTENCE quote

How are economy/asset prices doing ? Easy…check the S&P average prices BUT by quarter.

As you can see below, it becomes quite clear…

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘Press On!’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.”

― Calvin Coolidge

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IEF sideways

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ADP payroll weak

weekly…

Monthly…

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Bi-wkly S&P and Oil

based on average daily close price…

And all lines point up again 2y Treasury since mid-July…

Oil trends down…bi-wkly oil daily close average…

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Multi-unit condo-apt building down 20% (Real Estate Housing Home)

The change is more dramatic…and signal recession

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Payroll growth finally weak (0.97%) < 1% YoY and Empl-Popn breaks to new low

see 2007…

Jobs under pressure…new low here Empl-Popn downtrend:

-0.4 over last year

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Auto Loan Delinquencies higher than before 2008

See minute 1:20…

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USD trend=Fed cycle not economy

2015 economy was weak (Oil at $10) but jobs strong and USD strong as rates were about to rise.

2013 economy weak but QE so USD down.

2025 Jan econ OK but Fed stopped dropping so USD weakened for 6 months.

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July Unemployment Rate (UR) up …close to 4.3%

Labor force continues to shrink as well…

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IEF to TECK bullish

2 weeks ago good leading…before spy showed any signs…

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