Prices on food come off with weak economy…
from
superc.ca
Unemployment up 1.6% from bottom…
Delinquencies are now accelerating. Recession is near…
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/q1-gdp-tracking-near-zero-growth_0153707245.html
No big layoffs until 2026…
Trend in employment weakness continues…
As stocks have fallen in March and April, cpi will be low for 2 months.
I guess everyone now knows recession is coming. Will they do anything about it?
Maybe 10-20% will do a lot…the rest…savings rate is rising from 4.4 to 4.6% in Feb and
their spending will be cut back.
Normally jobs get better every year but before a recession unemployment claims start to rise…
Unemployment rate clearly rising..
As you can see, normally unemployment falls every year..
Since COVID below, see since Aug 2023…employment started to worsen..
Jobs cuts now highest since Q1 2009…
In 2024, 1st day VIX GHA above the 12dma…great timing…1st day after when down actually.
Credit Flow Investor 