Credit Flow Investor

To scale it to match, I multiplied real pce by 7.

It’s not a surprise +12% S&P Q3 leads to big GDP Q3 to be reported late December.

Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP estimate is strong 3%+…

Many believe this…

Overdone by perma-bears….empl-popn now 59.7…peak was 60.4 in 2023.

Jobs lost…2.4 M though quite a lot as normally it rises every year!

Christmas hiring down -22% over last year…

77% bad customer rage survey….32% in 1976!

Down -1.1% for last 4 weeks (based on 5d average weekly price).

Below 2% growth…less next year.

Bubbles eventually pop as debt efficiency dies and money velocity falls.

More and more debt is required to keep growing asset prices.

When asset prices stall, growth dies rapidly. Nov. S&P growth YoY in 2024 +32%, 2025 +14%.

So 43% of 14% means 2026 growth … 2%-5%. GLD would be +20% slowing down.

MONEY VELOCITY BOOMED IN 2022…2025 has falling efficiency.

Houston is oil workers and Colorado Springs is real estate finance and construction. It’s clearly not government.

Foreclosures mean no buyers.

Home Depot down YoY -16% …40 wk X 100 wkma…Last Nov +34%

This year Sep core inflation lower at 0.22…

Trend of inflation to 0.2…so temp rise from SPY over.

Walmart much better but slowing down +20% vs +80%.

AND lastly SPY YoY down from Nov +33%,,,

Big surge was 2021-2024…

Looks like Fed will cut in Dec…

AND 1 year treasury 3.6% …

Jan pause …

Probability Oct 22 moves from 41% to 67%…

SPY at 0.1% for Nov month…last year was 2.37%.