PEG ratio 4.93-6.3

I have read that Inflated bubble stocks should be sold with a PEG of 3.0.

From investopedia…

What Is the Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio?

The price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG ratio) is a stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period.

The PEG ratio is used to determine a stock’s value while also factoring in the company’s expected earnings growth, and it is thought to provide a more complete picture than the more standard P/E ratio.

Key Takeaways

  • The PEG ratio enhances the P/E ratio by adding expected earnings growth into the calculation.
  • The PEG ratio is considered to be an indicator of a stock’s true value, and similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.
  • The PEG for a given company may differ significantly from one reported source to another.
  • Differences will depend on which growth estimate is used in the calculation, such as one-year or three-year projected growth.
  • A PEG lower than 1.0 is best, suggesting that a company is relatively undervalued.

According to well-known investor Peter Lynch, a company’s P/E and expected growth should be equal, which denotes a fairly valued company and supports a PEG ratio of 1.0. When a company’s PEG exceeds 1.0, it’s considered overvalued while a stock with a PEG of less than 1.0 is considered undervalued.

PE ratio S and P 500 29.1

Shiller PE 37.3

Earnings Growth 5.9%

PEG ratios

12mo PEG 4.93

Shiller PEG 6.3

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Dividends Growth Now Negative and Long VIX Moving Up

Clearly market is worried now…VIX up 53% YoY..

Dividend growth now negative Q3 2024…more bad news for stocks…

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Unemployed over 27 weeks

This is key to delinquency rates rising…

When this number rises recession is around the corner…

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Construction Unemployment 2007 and Wages

Unemployment starts up the year after construction peak (2006 and 2024).

See spike in construction unemployment in Feb 2007.

Construction wages are very high and each unemployed is equivalent to 3 additional jobs.

Wage growth is slowing now to 4%…

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Credit Card Defaults Up 50% and XHB home builders confirm bear market

Home builders confirm bear market as of this week…

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Construction Decline same as Jan 2007

What coincides with construction downturns? Unemployment and mortgage delinquency..

MBA (Mortgage bankers association) even confirms that unemployment is key to mortgage delinquencies.

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SPY -3% in December…Bear Market Ahead and MBA reports 20% rise in delinquency YoY

Market heavily overvalued….Shiller PE…

AND delinquencies are rising. Mortgages rise with unemployment the next 2 years.

AND historically delinquencies fall every year YoY.

Screenshot
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Europe and Canada Inflation 0 for 4 months

This explains the drop in rates Canada and Europe,,,,50 bps each meeting.

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M1 money supply now rising Positive since October

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Gold signals DOWNTREND inflation

Gold now trades with the euro and inverse USD as it should…

Last Dec trending up…this year DOWN.

AND downtrend gold means downtrend inflation !

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