The inflation scare of the last 3 months (Jul-Sep) came from falling USD. BUT now its back and
strongest monthly in 2 years. This leads to stalling stock market and falling oil.
The last week it pushes up…
Notice that UC fell for 3 months and inflation reported higher at 0.2 .
BUT NOW Oct is rising rapidly again like May and June.
Can see clearly bull-bear transitions…bear started end of Aug…
The Fed wont be able to stop it. Eventually, gas-oil prices will be quite cheap by 1st week of March sparking a rally. But only over the spring then fall again from summer- fall.
Meanwhile, delinquencies on all loans keeps rising…the hidden monster.
See below the 1 year Treasury confirming the deflation in July.
Fed has to catch up big time!
1.482 T or -10% of all mortgage debt was written down..
Now outstanding mortgage debt
Q2 2024 20348B or 20.348T
-10% would be 2.035 T OR 37% more than last time.
Wealth lost is about 16X or 32T…
Credit Flow Investor 