Credit Flow Investor

Delinquencies are now accelerating. Recession is near…

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/q1-gdp-tracking-near-zero-growth_0153707245.html

No big layoffs until 2026…

Trend in employment weakness continues…

As stocks have fallen in March and April, cpi will be low for 2 months.

I guess everyone now knows recession is coming. Will they do anything about it?

Maybe 10-20% will do a lot…the rest…savings rate is rising from 4.4 to 4.6% in Feb and

their spending will be cut back.

Normally jobs get better every year but before a recession unemployment claims start to rise…

Unemployment rate clearly rising..

As you can see, normally unemployment falls every year..

Since COVID below, see since Aug 2023…employment started to worsen..

Jobs cuts now highest since Q1 2009…

In 2024, 1st day VIX GHA above the 12dma…great timing…1st day after when down actually.

Bonds are green. Clearly, they are starting to factor in recession (negative growth).

TECK shows weak economy -26% for 2 year change..

Stocks and real estate are dead for 4 years during the cleanup.

See that housing and gold are inverse. When housing started to recover in 2012, and

XHB was +50% YoY.

GLD went sideways and then crashed in 2013. GDX return same as GLD…

GLD 2.4X vs 2.7X.

Also OEX hit 0 at last bottom…and showed downtrend at end of 2014!

TECK up also 2 months after QE starts.