Credit Flow Investor

Insured UR last year

First, revisions in employment numbers show trend to negative employment.

A burst in Jan and stability in stocks until volatility in SandP causes a new wave of layoffs.

You’ve had the rate rise cycle then the fed pause cycle (vix falling) then the bad economy cycle to begin next 3 months…

The continuing claims monthly change has the same trend as unemployment rate…

Payrolls vary too much to predict and aren’t as stable as the unemployment rate. Study was done on unemployment claims 4wkma and found it lacking as well as SPY monthly change.

Good news as the hysteria of the last 3 years has ended with declaration of pandemic over on May 11 and last Friday. It’ll be another 20 years before the next hysteria.

Link changed to end of month gasoline change. This predicted the Jan rise in inflation much better than the average.