Both ccpi and gcpi flat to falling for first time since Mar/Apr…
OBV bullish:
VIX crossed blue line:
AND 2 week gas up:
Hence SPY can rise rapidly…
ROC has turned from a -6.5 to a -5 and more pronounced on ROC5:
Also VIX GHA bar reduced …small (big bars are gone)….
AND BLS Reported CPI on Thu…MARKET RALLIED FRI and esp when institutions buy at the close on friday.
VIX OHLC APR :
Be aware of 0930-1030 scam if vix opens lower (Apr 4)….
After the second dip, a 12% run in 2 months. Feb 2 had a 2% dip. The first dot above blue line in Feb indicated the beginning of the uptrend (2nd Fri in Feb).
The VIX peaked end of april then fell from May-mid Jun a $17 run. For now red and blue lines rising means 1 wk up and 1 wk down until VIX blue line falls at Fed mtg Nov 7.
SPY will fall for a few days as a yield spike (Tlt down 3% in 2 days) has occurred due to mini oil shock. The red line for a pullback is 291. Market is due to open up below this line…
Should ROC14 hit -0.5 by Tues/Wed … a buy.
ROC5 is a good indicator to show a reversion to the mean effect on a weekly basis. On a monthly basis, the chart shows a strong July / Aug and a weak Sep implying a strong Oct indeed.
ROC5 trend and williams indicate an Oct 3 entry…. as the middle of the week-Wed are the bottom periods above.
And core inflation also dropped…
And Sep due for a bigger drop…
This is good for SPY in the fall after fed mtg…
The SPY ROC will go down and down until fed mtg 3wks from today.
Sep will be a – ROC month. July was a +4 and August a +3 so reversion to mean brings spy to a -. Also the month of a fed rate rise is bad for SPY.
Also falling inflation for the first time in 4 months…
AND
USD macd black line getting ready to cross the red line…
Oil has been outperforming SPY and TLT:
I create 2 new links:
Right now Oil will outperform as SPY will go sideways and TLT goes down…
See USO june last year! 30% mo rise rate
For comparison:
Apr 2018: 28% rise rate
May 2018: 12% rise rate
Gas has been falling for 2 weeks so Fed will be neutral on this meeting. Notice how gas prices were rising before the Jan Fed Mtg!
However, oil shows a new uptrend so gas may reverse by end of June…
Credit Flow Investor 