Last year cpi was very low (May especially) so cpi (Jul 12) could go to 2.8 or more for June.
Watch for TLT 12dma to have significant downtrend (last 2 weeks of July before Fed Mtg Aug 1).
Currently, the TLT 12dma is actually rising!
Inflation on high side-
Most likely back to 0% and rebounding in mid-June…
USD weakness has driven SPY up this week but will slow down next week allowing a SPY retreat after Fed Mtg.
The YoY gas chart indicates the future inflation number for May…highest level in over a year and climbing..
And of course confirmed with gcpi below…
TLT to oil shows a move to risk off. MACD wkly shows the first up in 4 weeks.
Although TLT momentum is still low when compared to 2016 and 2017 Apr-Jun timeframes. I suspect that’s due to rate rises and inflation worries. BUT August should be good as oil will fall over the summer and gather downward speed into August.
In addition, the 10wkma line is still going down. In 2017, it was rising from Feb-Sep. In 2 months, this can reverse to rising/flat after the Fed rate rise in June.
Real estate doesn’t have a bright future as the bottom of the market has no support.
1. Ogden-Clearfield, Utah
Millennials who own homes: 51.0%
2. Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.
Millennials who own homes: 45.3%
3. Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa
Millennials who own homes: 43.6%
4. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
Millennials who own homes: 43.3%
1. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
Millennials who own homes: 17.8%
2. Urban Honolulu, Hawaii
Millennials who own homes: 18.3%
3. San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.
Millennials who own homes: 19.8%
4. New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.
Millennials who own homes: 19.8%
End of 2012 in UK AND
Q1 2012 for US. Q2 2010 was an effective bottom when delinquencies started to fall. BUT end of 2012 was a better time in both US and Europe.
Unemployment rate also peaked in 2010:
BUT again 2012 was a great time to buy RE as unemployment rate, delinquencies, and unemployment claims were falling for 1.5 years (Q2 2010 to Q4 2011).
Conclusion: Q2 2024 will be the best time to re-enter RE (provided the 3 factors above are falling)….rent until then.
Gas prices need to turn down on a monthly basis. Over the summer, gas prices roll over after rising early in the year.
The USD has broken out into bull mode. This is necessary to have a TLT run and to have oil turn around and fall. See Oct 2014 and Jan 2015 and Jan 2016.
Oil has turned the 3rd week May in 2016 and 2017.
USD x 200dma transition leads a run of TLT by 3 months.
Credit Flow Investor 